- Hypothesis testing:
- Layman term : Method of testing if an assumption falls in feasible likelihood estimation or just a non-sense.
- Hypothesis : statement about an unknown population parameter (Your guess of the average value of a sample)
- Hypothesis test : test of two competing hypotheses.
- Null hypothesis : Your guess
- Alternative hypothesis : Challenging idea against your guess
- 3 tests:
- direction of test = direction of alternative hypothesis (or challenging idea)
- hypothesis for less or fewer = left tailed test
- hypothesis for greater or more = right tailed test
- hypothesis for different = two tailed test
- Testing Method : Compute sample mean and see the difference between guessed mean and sample mean. Measure if the difference is significant or not.
- Solution:
- z-test
- proportion z-test
- t-test
- ANOVA
- chi-square test of independence
- Chi-square goodness of fit
- Non-parametric Wilcoxon-signed rank test
- Non-parametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test
- Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test
- A/B Testing : Hypothesis testing on 2 different scenarios (control vs treatment group)
- p-value :
- probability of obtaining a result if the null hypothesis is true
- probability value from z-score or significance level
- Large p-value = p values not on tails = Large support for null hypothesis (p_value > alpha)
- Small p-value = p values on tails = No support for null hypothesis (p_value <= alpha)
- cut-off point = common significance level is 5%
- confidence interval = 1- alpha = 95%
- if the hypothesized population parameter is within the confidence interval, you should fail to reject the null hypothesis.
- Null is False / Negative.
- False Positive = Type 1 error
- False Negative = Type 2 error